There is something about Image Sensors Europe that always brings the industry back down to earth. Across two days of presentations, it is easy to get caught up in the pace of innovation. Smaller pixels, smarter architectures, and AI-driven pipelines dominate the conversation. But every so often, a talk cuts through the optimism and asks a more uncomfortable question. Not what is possible, but what is viable.
That was very much the tone of Andras Pattantyus’ presentation from BestQD.
While others focused on performance gains and emerging capabilities, Pattantyus concentrated on a more fundamental issue facing short-wave infrared (SWIR) imaging: cost. Not as a secondary concern, but as the defining factor that will determine whether SWIR remains a niche technology or finally breaks into the mainstream.
“Let’s talk about low cost for imaging.”
It was a simple statement, but it set the tone for what followed: a pragmatic and, at times, blunt assessment of where SWIR stands today and what still needs to happen for it to scale.
A Technology That Is Ready, but Not Affordable
SWIR has been described as promising for many years. The ability to see beyond the visible spectrum, to detect moisture, inspect materials, operate in low light, or cut through visual noise, has clear value across multiple industries.
Technically, the technology is ready. That is no longer in question. What Pattantyus made clear is that the real barrier now is economic. He pointed to areas such as agriculture, defence, and clinical imaging where SWIR is already gaining traction. However, these remain relatively small markets. They are valuable, but not transformative in terms of volume. This is the central issue. SWIR works, but it does not yet work cheaply enough. Until that changes, it will remain in an uncomfortable position. It is too expensive for mass adoption, yet too mature to be considered emerging.
Fragmentation, Opportunity and the Quantum Dot Approach
One of the most revealing aspects of the presentation was the extent to which the SWIR technology landscape has become fragmented.
InGaAs continues to dominate in terms of performance, but its cost limits broader adoption. Germanium-on-silicon offers integration advantages but suffers from higher dark current. Organic materials provide flexibility but raise questions about long-term reliability. Quantum dots are emerging as a strong candidate, but they are not yet fully proven at scale.
“There’s a lot of customers coming around asking for the classic answers.”
Yet the industry does not currently have a single, definitive solution to offer. This situation suggests a market that is still searching rather than converging.
Among these competing approaches, quantum dot sensors stand out as one of the more promising routes to cost reduction. By placing a SWIR-sensitive photodiode layer on top of a conventional silicon readout circuit, they offer the potential to leverage established CMOS manufacturing processes.
“It’s just a photodiode layer that you put on top of your ROIC.”
While the concept appears straightforward, the practical challenges are significant. Achieving uniformity, ensuring reliability, and scaling production remain key hurdles. Nevertheless, the level of activity in this area, particularly within Europe, indicates that it is likely to play a central role in the next phase of development.
The Volume Challenge and the Path Forward
Perhaps the most telling part of the presentation was the discussion around market volumes.
Even in promising sectors, volumes remain relatively low. Pattantyus referred to figures in the region of “100,000 units a year,” which, although meaningful, are not sufficient to drive the economies of scale required to significantly reduce costs.
This creates a difficult cycle. Without higher volumes, costs remain elevated. Without lower costs, high-volume applications do not materialise. The applications are there. The technical capability is there. What is missing is the economic tipping point.
Looking ahead, the most attractive opportunities remain in automotive and, eventually, mobile applications. SWIR has clear potential in both areas, from enhanced sensing in vehicles to new capabilities in consumer devices. However, it is entering competitive environments where alternatives such as LiDAR, thermal imaging, and near-infrared solutions are already well established. Pattantyus acknowledged this, noting that success will depend on achieving the right balance of performance and cost. At present, that balance has not yet been achieved.
A More Realistic Perspective
What made this presentation particularly notable was its tone. In an industry that often leans towards optimism, this was a more measured and realistic perspective. It did not question the value of SWIR, but it did challenge assumptions about how quickly it will scale.
The focus was not on pushing performance further, but on addressing the fundamental constraint that remains.
“In the near term, I’d be very happy if we can just enable… a low-cost camera.”
This may appear to be a modest ambition, but it is in fact critical. If the industry can reduce costs to a level that enables broader adoption, the impact could be significant. New applications would emerge, new markets would open, and SWIR could begin to move beyond its current niche. Until then, it remains a powerful technology that has yet to achieve its full commercial potential.
And in that sense, the message from Image Sensors Europe was clear. The future of SWIR will not be determined by what it can do, but by what it can be made to cost.
